The Safe Hand

What does this mean?

It’s the opponent which, if you have to lose the lead, you would prefer to take the trick.

Why?  Because whatever they lead is less likely to damage you. 

Example

You are in  West in 3NT with the following hands

North

spadeKQ2                           spade64
HeartK76                            HeartA84
dAJ985                        dK103
c73                              cAK542  

South

 The bidding has gone 1NT from you, 3NT from your partner.  North leads the Jack of spades.  This runs round to your Queen and suggests that North has led from AJ10xx (his partner would have played the Ace on the first round if he had it.)  If you have to lose the lead which hand would you prefer to win the trick? 

Well let’s think about it.  You are now down to K2 of spades.  You need to bring the diamonds in to make 9 tricks which probably involves a finesse but which way?  If you finesse the 10 and it loses to South he will return a spade through your K2 and North will cash four spade tricks beating the contract.  However, if you choose to finesse the Jack and it loses to North, he cannot damage you because your King is bound to make if he leads a spade and if he doesn’t you have your 9 tricks.  So in this case it is North who is the ‘safe’ hand.  So, after winning the Queen of spades you lead a diamond across to the King and play the 10, running it to North  if not covered.  

Try this one. 

You are West,  in 3NT, with the following hands slightly changed

North

spadeA32                           spade64
HeartK76                            HeartA84
dAJ965                        dK103
c73                              cAK542  

South

This time North leads the King of spades suggesting KQJxx.  As you know, it is right to ‘duck’ your Ace when it’s your only stop in the suit so you duly do that and then do it again on the next lead.  You win the third round with the Ace and stop to think.  Again, you need to bring in the diamonds but this time the safe hand has moved.  Why?  Because now it is North who can damage you as he has three remaining spade tricks to win if he can get in.  If South gets in he has no spade left (because of your clever ducking play at tricks one and two) so cannot get to his partner’s hand.  In this case South is the safe hand so you duly play a small diamond from your hand and finesse the 10. 

In both these examples the great thing is that if the finesse wins you make an overtrick but even if it loses you still make your contract, a ‘win-win’ if ever there was one!

By the way, you may well say ‘but what if North has led from a 4 card suit – South will have one left to play.  True, but then North hasn’t enough tricks to beat the contract so you still win!